Montana’s Race for the Senate
Colter Sienkiewicz
As Trump’s first term comes to a close, state politicians Republican and Democrat alike race to gain political footing in a divided nation. My home state of Montana mirrors the nation’s polarized atmosphere as we near the November elections. One Montana race capturing the citizens’ attention is the race for the state’s U.S. Senate seat currently held by Republican Steve Daines Come November, the incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock will face off against Daines who is seeking his second six-year term. Both candidates have been popular among Montanans and are likely to face off in November.
In recent decades, Montana has seen major economic and job growth due to tourism and the outdoor recreation industry. As a partial result, younger more progressive demographics have migrated to Montana’s expanding cities, in part to enjoy proximity to neighboring wild landscapes. It would appear that this demographic change has helped punctuate a political contrast between Montana’s rural socially-conservative culture and its urban progressive culture. Whereas the younger demographics in the outdoor jobs sector tend to be more progressive, the ranching and farming sectors have shown support to candidates on both sides of the aisle but generally tend to support conservative candidates.
Governor Bullock had a short-lived bid for the Democratic presidential nomination this past winter, leaving the race early last December. After dropping out, Bullock made it clear that he would not run for the Senate in the fall. During a time when our country couldn’t be more divided and with both parties elbowing for control of the Senate, neither can afford to rest on its laurels. Leaders within the Democratic establishment, including former President Obama, later helped convince Bullock to challenge Daines for Montana’s Senate seat. After gaining control of the House of Representatives in 2018 but falling short of a majority in the Senate, Democrats have again set their sights on control of the Senate.
Both Senator Daines and Governor Bullock have focused on issues such as healthcare, education, and public lands during their last terms in office. Generating about 2.2 billion dollars in wages yearly partly through tourism, public lands are vital to Montana’s economy (outdoorindustry.org). Montana’s public lands are directly responsible for 71,000 Montana jobs (outdoor industry.org). Since the issue of public lands is one of the most politically loaded issues in Montana right now, both Gov. Bullock and Sen. Daines are looking to gain support from relevant Montanan issues come November.
As many have been experiencing first hand over the last few months, the Coronavirus pandemic has swept through nations across the world leaving behind economic devastation. Montana’s economy, depending immensely on tourism, has suffered a hard blow as the state’s national and international travel slows. According to a recent poll by Montana State University, Gov. Bullock was able to garner support through this difficult time with about a 70% pandemic response approval rating compared to Sen. Daines’ 48% pandemic response approval rating (Dennison, Mike).
In another MSU poll conducted in April, 46% of Montanans say they will vote for Bullock this fall, giving him a 7% lead over Daines at 39% (Dennison, Mike). In the redder-than-blue state of Montana, polls suggest that alongside Governor Bullock's Senate race, Biden could have a shot at winning a majority of presidential votes. If this happens, it would be the first time a Democratic presidential candidate has won the state since Bill Clinton did so in 1992. Although Montana has a long history as a red state, Montana’s more populated areas with younger demographics, such as Bozeman and Missoula, Montana, are more often electing progressive candidates. As this trend continues, Montana’s reputation as a red state could be challenged this coming November.
“Montana.” Outdoor Industry Association, outdoorindustry.org/state/montana/.
Dennison, Mike. “MSU Poll: Bullock Leads Daines in Senate Contest.” KTVH, 5 May 2020, www.ktvh.com/news/montana-news/msu-poll-bullock-leads-daines-in-senate-contest.